21st Century Thoughts

1. AMZN is fine. Apple had a strong earnings report. The market as a whole is not. Unless you are over         the age of 65 and need the income flow, invest in VOO. Over the next 20-30 years, your future self will      thank you. 2. The US Government is implementing a "disinformation team" like something out of 1984.  3. Student loan crisis continues to be a talking point. You can not cancel that debt. Forget the people saying "just cause you paid doesn't mean others need to suffer" or "they need a break so their life isn't ruined". Here are a few points:     1. There is no difference between this debt and others. If an 18 year old took out a loan to start his own           business and fails, he has to pay the bank. There is no difference between an 18 year old starting a               business and a student.       2. "Education" in its ...

Game 5 tonight, no Lavine or Caruso. It has been over, but this is the final dagger in this series. Is a rebuild likely? No, but also yes. Watch any game this playoffs and the Bulls stand out. Unable to have consistent ball movement, lack of outside shooting, and soft on the glass. All good teams have to be able to shoot and rebound and the Bulls, well, can't. Also brings up a good point made by the TNT crew about being a "champion" in sports or business or life. We judge based on team wins or accomplishments on certain stages but disregard other championships as "less important".  Was Charles Barkley a champion? Olympics, yes, NBA, no. Was Steve Jobs a successful businessman when Apple was founded, or after he returned in the late 1990's? Where do we draw the line? The Bulls first playoff season in 5 years, and a playoff win against what probably will be a top 3 MVP candidate and potential NBA championship team seems nice. But it was a failure by all measur...

Just as the NBA was hitting its stride, multiple blowouts in big games occur. Bulls, Hawks, and Jazz all lose by 25 points and the games were not close. I think the NBA needs a change to a best of 5 first round. There is too much time passing before we get to the conference finals and you lose track of who is even playing that day. Again, the product has been solid so why the large gaps? The game continues to evolve for the better and the playoffs bring with it rivalries and more intensity than regular season games do. We want more, not less of this from a fan's perspective.

 Twitter will get a much needed jolt. They are and will become the de facto place for politicians, adult celebrities, and entertainers. Facebook has been losing ground and will continue to falter, and Instagram is losing popularity among their main user block (teens, young adults). Its all about engagement. Musk increases that for both critics and fans. The company will grow in value, especially over the next few years with how politics is trending.  Buy some shares while you can. 

Much needed. Also a fan of work from home, commuting is brutal. 21st century is here to stay hopefully...

Stock tanking, market down, recession is here. What does the stock tanking tell us? Consumers are cutting back on needless expenses. Streaming services are too widespread and too expensive to have 6 or 7 during a recession period. Netflix is a victim of the market at a time when inflation dominates conversation. Users leaving, price hikes, more competition, and ads now. That is a losing strategy. It also hurts that competitors have more products to offer in terms of historical shows and movies.  Disney is suffering too for a variety of reasons, but streaming is certainly a factor. Users do not want to spend so much to watch one movie on one platform. I would stay away from non-essential items. The economic hardships are here to stay.

Maybe it is a façade, but the playoffs have been much more exciting than usual. More fan engagement, less outside noise, more basketball. The product ultimately sells itself. Baseball has been the same, returning to 2018 attendance levels. Are fans really dying to watch? Maybe, or maybe its less outside noise and more escape from reality. The economy, wars, social issues, and personal struggles escape when watching sports. The last few years attempted to bind the two together, and the product became "rotten". People want sports to be sports and less like Apple's ecosystem. Nothing everything needs to be intertwined. We can enjoy one thing without supporting or hating something completely different, i.e.. I can watch baseball without social commentary and still care about the opioid crisis or police brutality. It is possible, and we have done it for decades before 2020. I have been critical of sports but they are luring me back. Ironically, gambling is pulling me farther a...

Unofficial start to summer is Memorial Day but this year feels different. Maybe it is the overall gloom to the world but it feels like we are in a "rut". There is no excitement around anything outside of kids ready to be done with school.  As long as people are hurting financially, all other entertainment, social events, and outside distractions do not matter. Money towers over all. Let's make this a great week and hope Memorial Day is the jolt we need to start recovering both mentally and physically. 

Put $200 into an IRA or 401K or brokerage account into the S&P500. Your future self in 30 years will thank you tremendously. I refuse to believe young people do not have the money to invest. It requires cutting expenses or slight cutbacks on drinking, gambling, or luxury spending. It is laziness. Compounding interest is the only way to fight inflation. $200 every two weeks, heck even $200 a month. It will pay off greatly.

Musk makes his offer. The board has 2 options: 1. Reject and watch the money get drained from stock sellers. The offer is clearly in the best interest of investors (will add "hype", cash, and engagement) and that is all investors want. 2. Accept and make a blanket statement about their "fear about Musk's free speech agenda..." but know deep down that he will desperately kick the company back into relevancy. The biggest loser is Facebook. Twitter may be seeing a revitalized user base soon (and hello President Trump), where the Metavese is tanking. Wait a little longer to buy. This is quickly becoming a long term hold and opens the door to new ownership and era. Much more exciting than Meta.

Addicting, advertised everywhere, easy to access, and all virtual. Dangerous territory. The exploiting of these feeling is driving another crisis. The switch to addiction in food, social media, gambling, drugs, etc. all target stimulus feelings.  So what can we do? Understand beforehand the risks and feelings. See what others are doing. If the behavior appalls you, do not start. Once you're in, you're hooked.

Inflation is at 20% + for the year. If the government tells you that it is 9% in an election year, it's much higher in real life. How many wages will increase to account for this? Or will you have to sacrifice and cut spending while the elites move on as usual? Ask for a pay raise and watch how many laugh in your face. Just another day for the middle class.

Officially starting collecting documents and contacting lawyers to start my dual citizenship process in Italy which is exciting. The entire process is complex but there are many great people trying to help which is appreciated. Baseball also started and engagement seems solid. I would be curious to see how many streams, tickets, and TV viewership there were this weekend. The sport needs it. Also remote again this week, so blogs return. I missed the ability to ramble (office space does not allow for it.)  Let's make it a great week!

Getting one million dollars every 2 years or 1 guaranteed multi-million dollar idea every year? Which is better and goes farther? Happy Wednesday and to the end of a fun March Madness. Baseball and NBA playoffs will attempt to fill the void.

Elon Musk just bought a massive stake in the social media platform. Long-term hold? Maybe. I know that when Trump is reinstated early next year that they will boom, but its a matter of how low they will go now... Hold off a little longer as the price will continue to fall deeper and deeper down. In addition, does inflation matter? We freak out about inflation relative to our paychecks. The old motto in economics was "If the prices increase from $1 to $5, we all notice if our paychecks increased from $10 to $15. We shouldn't care if our wages are growing at a higher rate". Here is the issue with it all: Trump was the first President to focus on wage growth since the 1990's. Biden, Obama, and Bush neglected this. Inflation hurts worse when your money grows slow than it, not when it is necessarily "a high inflation time". Biden is pushing inflation through massive spending at a time when companies are exploiting low wages due to the "pandemic." That i...

1. Go Villanova. Kansas is good, well-rounded, and experienced. It will be more to see what Jay Wright can do with a limited roster. 2. Markets will be stale all-year. More rate hikes will continue to off-set any gains. 3. Congress will flip. That is a certainty at this point. 4. Is it better to try and fail or succeed by luck?