Finance Notes

Saw a couple different stats that upset me this morning in regards to crypto currencies (Bitcoin specific). The biggest one has to be this: 0.1% of all Bitcoin holders control 27% of the total supply. 27%. This is a glaring issue and a massive reason that people are skeptical on it. What is stopping 1% from owning 99%? Or price raising to the max? Nothing. It really is an issue that has no solution. If you regulate, you lose the decentralized component. If you turn a blind eye, then one guy owns all the currency in 30 years and you can't buy a coffee. Alarming but no real solutions exist to solve this issue.

I am aware other strong crypto's exist (Catgirl coin in 3 years) but they seem like gimmicks and NFT's rather than a real currency. The future will continue to be shadowy until these issues are cured.

The other note I saw was discussing the issue with inflation and the FED response. With 0% rates and inflation rampant, they need to raise them. There is too much cash, not enough consumer confidence, businesses are short on labor, and money isn't removing from circulation fast enough. The issue is a rate raise affects these sectors:

1. Housing Market

2. Markets and retirement plans

3. Government revenues through bond prices

So what will it affect? Do you tank 401k's or someone's new house value? How are government's balance sheet? They are stuck between a rock and a tough place with someone getting their value cut in half. The most likely seems like Housing will deflate, along with stocks continuing to draw down (this week is the start). Inflation at 4% looks so much better than the 9% now, and consumers feel the pinch during the holiday's. Buckle up, the ride is just starting.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Pendulum Always Sways... or Does It?

The belief in the United States is the balance of political power will always be present. Throughout our history, the opposing party has never been "wiped out" so bad in an election that their party's future is destroyed. Just take a look at my lifetime: 1. Republicans won solid majorities in the early 2000's and the White House in 2004 2. Democrats won supermajorities in both chambers and the White House in 2008 3. Republicans won majorities in the House in 2010, Senate in 2014, and held all 3 in 2016 4. Democrats won back the House in 2018 and hold a narrow majority in 2020 5. Early indicators on the 2022 midterms seem to have Republicans roaring back to power in 2 of the 3 chambers This trend is not unusual. Despite the most popular Presidents in the US's history helping their party for sometimes 10-12 years (think FDR, Kennedy, Reagan), the opposing party comes back strong.  I heard the phrase "don't worry, the pendulum always sways back." But wi...
Read more

We Are the Product

There were two interesting topics I wanted to talk about but one will wait for Monday. I settled for us being the product in a new AI world. This concept has been a sci-fi thriller for decades but always seen as "in the distant future with flying cars and alien travel." That reality is now here, or scratching the surface of it. And it has been here for a decade, if you realized it or not. The mid to late 2000's saw two products change the way we interacted with the world: social media and the touchscreen smartphone. Both of these concepts used us, the user, as the product. Social media had no product except the user posting information to other users. The touchscreen allowed us to use our fingers to control the product with apps tailored for us with information about us (photos, contacts, texts). At the time, these two remained separate from each other due to limited capabilities of the mobile phone (first iPhone had no app store, limited web functions, no 3G, etc.) Socia...
Read more

There's a Crash Coming...

The market dropped yesterday and that trend will not change. Stocks and Cryptos are both down due to one decision: the Fed raising rates. Why? Well, when the Government spends trillions without adjusting for debt you get rampant inflation. Combine this with the Fed injecting trillions through quantitative easing and you get the worst inflation in 50 years. By raising the rate and buying back some of their debt they injected, inflation will crash. The issue is so will 401k's and investments. If they do not raise rates, inflation continues to increase but your 401k is saved. What is more frustrating is this was predicted to happen by anyone who has take a high school economics class. Our economy is hanging on by a thread for some and others are ready to scoop it all up. Just make sure you're buying.
Read more