Analyzing Last Week

Let's look at my predictions from last week:

"My predictions are as follows from the Republican perspective: 232 house seats, 51 senate seats with GA going to a run-off.

Boom: 240+ house, 54 senate

Normal: 232, 51 with GA run-off

Bust: 223 house, 50 senate seats"


My bust model looks pretty good. Why? Well I said it last week too but Donald Trump. Now, there is a lot of blame going around and some is justified, but let's dive in. Republicans only are going to perform on my bust model because of these 3 factors despite a popular vote win of 2-4%. These are in order of most blame to least blame:

1. Gerrymandered maps and lack of competitive races. Look at Illinois for example, or Texas, New York (ironic as they dropped winnable Biden seats), or California. This redistricting cycle eliminated so many toss-up seats. Seems like a floor is 205 seats now rather than the pre-2020's maps of 175-180 floors. Wave elections are near impossible.

2. Republicans inability to run quality candidates in tight races. This is tied in with (3) so I will save the write-up for that part.

3. Donald Trump. Why is this like 2? Well, Trump's endorsements of bad candidates in swing states cost us a minimum of these seats: Washington 3rd, North Carolina 1st, Arizona Senate and Gov., and Pennsylvania Senate and Gov. at a minimum. Inexcusable to run MAGA type candidates in swing areas that focused on election denial. The voters have moved on and the country faces bigger threats. Trump's influence is waning and rightly so. Voters want stability and results, not chaos and blame. My writeup said 2024 is at risk with Trump and this midterm proved it earlier than expected.

4. Republican leadership is just a mouthpiece for Trump. This needs to end immediately and some self-reflection is needed. Money was spent horribly, fundraising is awful as Trump sucks up the funds with ridiculous 99-1 matches, and a lack of messaging once again hurts Republicans. How are Republicans not able to defend abortion or social security attacks still? McConnell and McCarthy also need to either buck leadership or be replaced. Voters want solutions and money needs to be spent to win. Why is it "vote blue no matter who" but Republicans undersell their own candidates? Baffling stuff.

5. Changing demographics mean new strategies are needed. This goes in-hand with 4 but it is time Republicans admit AZ is a blue-ish state and Georgia is close behind. Ohio, Iowa, and Florida are red. These are trades you make as demographics shift and Republicans need to plan effectively in those areas. You can not run a Trump agenda in Virginia and Arizona anymore, it just won't work.


Myths:

1. Youth vote. The youth vote was down and voted more for Republicans than 2018. No one in this age bracket did anything to cancel older voters out or suggest that they were adamant for abortion.

2. Abortion moved the scale 1-2% max. Yes, this matters but insignificant beside candidates that are of good quality. Kemp, Abbot, DeSantis, DeWine all won handily despite being pro-life and signing legislation into law (DeSantis will be soon he stated). Voters want normal and economic success and just don't worry about abortion like the liberal fraction of the Democrat party.

3. Doomsday talk. Republicans won the House, Senate is close with a favorable 2024 map, and most Democrats who hung on are moderate in swing areas. The country will hopefully move towards bipartisanship and stability ensues.


Lot to unpack but this is all for now. Republicans need to breathe and see who should lead their party (my votes are simple, Ron DeSantis, Lee Zeldin, Chip Roy, Glenn Youngkin, Kim Reynolds, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Young Kim, and Mike Garcia need seats at the table).

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