Election Day

Today is the day where election fans go crazy tracking and consolidating data to make predictions about what may or may not happen in 10 hours. My general thoughts are simple, Republicans win the popular vote by 3+ and control both chambers after tonight. I believe there are a few things to establish that most pundits are missing and is my rationale for the why behind the predictions.

1. The environment is red-friendly but not red tsunami. Why? Trump. Donald Trump has changed elections for the near future. There is so much engagement on both sides that the old days of "catching the other party sleeping" is not possible. Turnout for midterms and presidential elections will remain high which means more voters and closer races.

2. Democrats haven't nailed the messaging. Jan. 6th and abortion is not a national message, that is a coastal elitist / base voter message. The inability to give messages specific to each district will doom them in tossup districts.

3. 2024 is borderline wipeout for Democrats. Senate map is very Republican friendly. If Masters and Bolduc win tonight, Republicans have a clear path to 60 senate seats in 2024 if DeSantis, Haley, or Scott are at the top of the ticket. If Trump is, then less likely to get to 60.

4. Shifts are occurring rapidly, as Hispanics, Asians, and Black working class voters shift to the right. College educated women to the left. This election may be the last one that Democrats win Hispanic voters going forward if the trends continue.


My predictions are as follows from the Republican perspective: 232 house seats, 51 senate seats with GA going to a run-off.

Boom: 240+ house, 54 senate

Normal: 232, 51 with GA run-off

Bust: 223 house, 50 senate seats 


Again, a lot can happen and shifts are not universal. But tonight sure feels like a solid wave is forming for Republicans across the country. Either way, vote!

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